At this point you’re entirely justified in asking, “So what?”
The fact of the matter is, the lack of junior programmers is a very big deal from a business point of view, both to companies which already use Perl and those who might otherwise consider it. This directly and strongly impacts the bottom line of any Perl-using development shop.
According to Payscale.com, in San Francisco the median pay for a junior software developer is $66,000. For a senior software developer it’s $111,000. To be honest, we’re in a boom here right now. It’s my experience as a software development manager that each of these numbers is at least $20-$30K too low, but let’s run with the Payscale numbers. It’s obvious that a senior software developer is going to cost a shop a minimum of nearly $50,000 more than a junior developer.
Now consider the structure and needs of your typical software development department. There are a number of tasks which absolutely require the skills and expertise only a senior developer can bring to bear, but the majority of the work most likely can be performed by more junior developers with appropriate supervision. You do not need every member of your team to be senior and, at an extra $50K a head, you can’t afford to do it anyway. That sort of staff expenditure is an irresponsible business practice. However, as unreasonable as it is to expect a company to pay so much more for experience they don’t need, it’s equally unreasonable to expect a senior developer to accept less pay than (s)he has earned through years of training and experience.
Companies in this position, in order to continue using Perl, will have few options available to them. One of those options is to start training all incoming developers to use the language. While this is possible (undoubtedly some companies already do this), it is itself a very expensive proposition, often costing tens of thousands of dollars in training costs, time and productivity. A number of companies may run the numbers on the investment they’d be required to make in training and decide that it provides a much lower return than undertaking the arduous task of rearchitecting the software to use a language where they are able to hire staff (and at a more reasonable rate of pay).
Alternatively, companies which do not yet use Perl may be turned away from the language for similar reasons. The harsh financial realities of running a business—rather than technological merit—will end up dictating which programming language a company will use for their product. Selecting a language for which you can only hire senior developers is a very bad business practice, which leaves Perl in a poor position from a business point of view.
From where I’m standing, it does not appear as though the Perl community is doing much to correct this issue. As I detailed in my earlier post, in many cases Perl’s new programmer outreach appears fairly crummy if not virtually non-existent. This needs to change before Perl starts to face a cultural extinction. Perl needs to start creating fledgling Perlers to help sustain and grow the language through it’s next twenty-five years. As well, this will add new blood to the community and help diversify the gene pool. The more diverse a community, the better it’s able to adapt to the changing conditions which might otherwise overwhelm it.
A diverse or deep gene pool gives a population a higher chance of surviving an adverse change in conditions. Effects that cause or reward a loss in genetic diversity can increase the chances of extinction of a species. Population bottlenecks can dramatically reduce genetic diversity by severely limiting the number of reproducing individuals and make inbreeding more frequent. Wikipedia page on Extinction